Executive Summary
The coffee and cocoa sectors are navigating a period of extraordinary volatility. After historic price spikes in 2024 driven by severe supply deficits, markets are now undergoing a significant correction. Forecasts for the 2025/2026 season indicate a substantial rebound in production for both commodities.
Concurrently, the broader specialty agricultural products sector demonstrates robust secular growth, fueled by persistent consumer demand for traceable, sustainable, and ethically sourced goods. This trend is making traceability the central strategic mandate for the coming years.
The 2024 Price Shock
Cocoa Price Surge (2024)
+180%
Futures reached historic highs due to a severe global supply deficit, marking the third consecutive year of shortfall.
Coffee Price Surge (2024)
+70%
Arabica bean prices surged to their highest levels since 1977, driven by erratic weather in key producing regions.
Deep Dive: Cocoa Sector
Navigating correction after an unprecedented supply crisis.
2024 Deficit Drivers
Catastrophic harvests in West Africa, accounting for over 70% of global production, were caused by a combination of factors:
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Adverse Weather
Poor weather patterns stressed crops in both Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.
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Disease
An outbreak of black pod fungal disease significantly reduced yields.
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Structural Issues
Ineffective farm-level pruning and inadequate insecticide distribution.
Price Correction (USD/Tonne)
After spiking to a high of over $12,600, cocoa futures have corrected sharply, falling to their lowest levels since January 2024.
2025/2026 Production Rebound (Forecast)
The market is stabilizing as supply forecasts for the 2024/2025 season show a strong recovery, attributed to improved yields and farm management.
Deep Dive: Coffee Sector
Market sentiment turns bearish as production forecasts hit record highs.
Price Volatility (2024-2025)
Prices surged to 1977 levels in 2024 due to supply-driven factors. However, prices have plunged in late 2025 in response to a record production outlook.
Record Production Forecast (2025/26)
The USDA (FAS) projects a record global coffee production, with significant increases from key producers Brazil and Vietnam.
178. 7M
Million Bags
This strong forecast has become the dominant pricing factor, overshadowing low inventory levels.
Cross-Sector: Specialty Agriculture
A high-growth area driven by conscious consumerism.
Projected Market Growth (USD)
The specialty ag sector (fruits, vegetables, nuts, organic) is projected to see a CAGR of over 11%.
Key Growth Drivers
This expansion is not tied to commodity cycles but to structural shifts in consumer and technological trends.
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Consumer-Driven Demand
High demand for products that are certified organic, locally sourced, and sustainable.
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Technology as an Enabler
Precision farming (AI, drones, robotics) is mitigating high labor costs and boosting demand.
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Systemic Headwinds
The sector still faces rising input/freight costs, labor shortages, and climate change risks.
Strategic Focus: The Traceability Mandate
Connecting consumer demand to farm-level improvements.
Consumer trends are forcing a strategic shift in coffee and cocoa to address systemic issues like farmer poverty and deforestation. Traceability is the industry's key response.
1. Consumer Demand
For ethical, sustainable & traceable goods.
2. Corporate Response
Build verified, transparent supply chains (e.g., C. A.F.E. Practices).
3. Farm-Level Impact
Empower smallholders & ensure long-term supply stability.
Start Your Sourcing Journey
Understanding this data is the first step. Whether you're looking to source from a new partner or optimize your supply chain, our team can help.
Start Your Sourcing JourneyData Sources
This infographic is a synthesis of data from the following reports and publications:
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